2020 AMC 12A Problem 23
Problem 23 of 25HarderAlgebraCounting & Probability
Jason rolls three fair standard six-sided dice. Then he looks at the rolls and chooses a subset of the dice (possibly empty, possibly all three dice) to reroll. After rerolling, he wins if and only if the sum of the numbers face up on the three dice is exactly Jason always plays to optimize his chances of winning. What is the probability that he chooses to reroll exactly two of the dice?
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Solution
Rerolling one die, keeping two dice that sum to wins with probability when and otherwise. Rerolling two dice, keeping a die of value wins with probability equal to the number of ways two dice sum to over this is largest when is smallest. For these probabilities are all greater than the reroll-all probability for rerolling all is better.
Rerolling exactly two dice is strictly best precisely when the two smallest dice sum to at least (so rerolling one cannot reach ) while the smallest die is or (so keeping it beats rerolling all three).
Sort the roll as If the only possibility is with orderings. If the possibilities have orderings. If choose with repetition from the six resulting triples have orderings. Thus there are qualifying ordered rolls out of a probability of
Thus, A is the correct answer.