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2020 AMC 12A Problem 23

Problem 23 of 25HarderProbability & StatisticsProblem-Solving Techniques

Jason rolls three fair standard six-sided dice. Then he looks at the rolls and chooses a subset of the dice (possibly empty, possibly all three dice) to reroll. After rerolling, he wins if and only if the sum of the numbers face up on the three dice is exactly 7.7. Jason always plays to optimize his chances of winning. What is the probability that he chooses to reroll exactly two of the dice?

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Solution

Rerolling one die, keeping two dice that sum to s,s, wins with probability 16\tfrac16 when s≤6s \le 6 and 00 otherwise. Rerolling two dice, keeping a die of value v,v, wins with probability equal to the number of ways two dice sum to 7−v,7 - v, over 36;36; this is largest when vv is smallest. For v=1,2,3,v=1,2,3, these probabilities are 536,436,336,\tfrac5{36},\tfrac4{36},\tfrac3{36}, all greater than the reroll-all probability 15216=572;\tfrac{15}{216}=\tfrac{5}{72}; for v≥4,v\ge4, rerolling all is better. Rerolling exactly two dice is strictly best precisely when the two smallest dice sum to at least 77 (so rerolling one cannot reach 77) while the smallest die is 1,2,1, 2, or 33 (so keeping it beats rerolling all three). Sort the roll as u≤v≤w.u\le v\le w. If u=1,u=1, the only possibility is (1,6,6),(1,6,6), with 33 orderings. If u=2,u=2, the possibilities (2,5,5),(2,5,6),(2,6,6)(2,5,5),(2,5,6),(2,6,6) have 3+6+3=123+6+3=12 orderings. If u=3,u=3, choose v,wv,w with repetition from {4,5,6};\{4,5,6\}; the six resulting triples have 3+6+6+3+6+3=273+6+6+3+6+3=27 orderings. Thus there are 3+12+27=423+12+27=42 qualifying ordered rolls out of 216,216, a probability of 42216=736.\dfrac{42}{216} = \dfrac{7}{36}. Thus, A is the correct answer.
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