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2015 AMC 10B Problem 18

Problem 18 of 25IntermediateCounting & Probability

Johann has 6464 fair coins. He flips all the coins. Any coin that lands on tails is tossed again. Coins that land on tails on the second toss are tossed a third time. What is the expected number of coins that are now heads?

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Solution

A coin ends as tails if and only if it has 33 flips that are tails, which happens with probability 18.\frac 18. Thus, the probability of any coin being heads is 78.\frac 78 . Since each of the 6464 coins ends as heads with probability 78,\frac78, linearity of expectation gives the expected number of coins that are now heads: 6478=56.64 \cdot \dfrac 78 = 56. Thus, the correct answer is D .

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Concepts: expected value · complementary probability

Problem text and solution from the LIVE past-contest archive. See also the AoPS wiki page for community solutions.