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2017 AMC 10A Problem 18

Problem 18 of 25IntermediateCounting & Probability

Amelia has a coin that lands heads with probability 13,\frac{1}{3}, and Blaine has a coin that lands on heads with probability 25.\frac{2}{5}. Amelia and Blaine alternately toss their coins until someone gets a head; the first one to get a head wins. All coin tosses are independent. Amelia goes first. The probability that Amelia wins is pq,\frac{p}{q}, where pp and qq are relatively prime positive integers. What is qp?q-p?

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Solution

Let xx be the probability that Amelia wins. There is a 13\frac{1}{3} chance Amelia wins off her first flip. If she gets tails, Blaine must also get tails for the game to return to the same state; this happens with probability 35.\frac{3}{5}. The total probability of this case is 2335=25.\dfrac{2}{3} \cdot \dfrac{3}{5} = \dfrac{2}{5}. The game then goes back to Amelia, who then again has a xx chance of winning. Therefore, we get the following equation. x=13+25x x = \dfrac{1}{3} + \dfrac{2}{5}x35x=13\dfrac{3}{5}x = \dfrac{1}{3} x=59. x = \dfrac{5}{9}. The difference between the denominator and numerator is 95=4.9 - 5 = 4. Thus, D is the correct answer.

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Concepts: recursive probability · geometric distribution

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