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2019 AMC 10A Problem 22

Problem 22 of 25HarderCounting & Probability

Real numbers between 00 and 1,1, inclusive, are chosen in the following manner. A fair coin is flipped. If it lands heads, then it is flipped again and the chosen number is 00 if the second flip is heads, and 11 if the second flip is tails. On the other hand, if the first coin flip is tails, then the number is chosen uniformly at random from the closed interval [0,1].[0,1]. Two random numbers xx and yy are chosen independently in this manner. What is the probability that xy>12?|x-y| > \tfrac{1}{2}?

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Solution

We can case on whether xx and yy are chosen from the interval or from 00 and 1.1. Each case has a 14\frac{1}{4} chance of happening, since they depend on two coin flips. Case 1:x1: x and yy are either 00 or 11 xx and yy need to be different, which happens with a 12\frac{1}{2} probability. Case 2:x2: x is either 00 or 1,1, and yy is chosen from [0,1][0, 1] If x=0,x = 0, then yy has to be chosen from (12,1],\left(\dfrac{1}{2}, 1\right], and if x=1,x = 1, then yy has to be chosen from [0,12).\left[0, \dfrac{1}{2}\right). This means that yy always has a 12\frac{1}{2} probability of being chosen from the correct interval. Case 3:x3: x is chosen from [0,1],[0, 1], and yy is either 00 or 11 This has the same probability as case 22 due to symmetry. Case 4:x4: x and yy are chosen from [0,1][0, 1] We can use geometric probability since we are working with an infinite number of (x,y)(x, y) pairs. We graph xy>12.|x - y| \gt \frac{1}{2}. The shaded area covers 14\frac{1}{4} of the graph, showing that there is a 14\frac{1}{4} probability of this case working. Adding the four weighted probabilities gives 14(12+12+12+14)=716.\frac14\left(\frac12+\frac12+\frac12+\frac14\right)=\frac7{16}. Thus, B is the correct answer.

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Concepts: geometric probability · casework

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