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2010 AMC 12B Problem 18

Problem 18 of 25IntermediateProbability & Statistics

A frog makes 33 jumps, each exactly 11 meter long. The directions of the jumps are chosen independently and at random. What is the probability that the frog’s final position is no more than 11 meter from its starting position?

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Solution

This is a continuous (geometric) probability. Anchor the second jump from P=(0,0)P=(0,0) to Q=(1,0),Q=(1,0), and let α,β\alpha,\beta be the directions of the first and third jumps, so the start is A=(cos⁡α,sin⁡α)A=(\cos\alpha,\sin\alpha) and the end is B=(1+cos⁡β,sin⁡β).B=(1+\cos\beta,\sin\beta). Taking 0≤α≤π0\le\alpha\le\pi and 0≤β≤2π,0\le\beta\le2\pi, the requirement AB≤1AB\le1 holds exactly when α≤β≤π.\alpha\le\beta\le\pi. In the αβ\alpha\beta-rectangle of area 2π2,2\pi^2, the favorable region is a triangle of area π22,\tfrac{\pi^2}{2}, so the probability is π222π2=14.\dfrac{\frac{\pi^2}{2}}{2\pi^2}=\dfrac14. Thus, the correct answer is C.
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Tagged: geometric probability · random walk

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