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2023 AMC 12A Problem 17

Problem 17 of 25IntermediateAlgebraProbability & Statistics

Flora the frog starts at 00 on the number line and makes a sequence of jumps to the right. In any one jump, independent of previous jumps, Flora leaps a positive integer distance mm with probability 12m.\dfrac{1}{2^m}. What is the probability that Flora will eventually land at 10?10?

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Solution

Let ana_n be the probability that Flora ever lands exactly on n,n, with a0=1.a_0=1. Conditioning on the first jump, an=∑k=1n12k an−k. a_n=\sum_{k=1}^{n}\dfrac{1}{2^k}\,a_{n-k}. We prove by induction that an=12a_n=\tfrac12 for every n≥1.n\ge 1. The case n=1n=1 is immediate. If the claim holds through n−1,n-1, then an=12na0+∑k=1n−112k⋅12=12n+12(1−12n−1)=12. \begin{aligned} a_n&=\frac{1}{2^n}a_0 +\sum_{k=1}^{n-1}\frac{1}{2^k}\cdot\frac12\\ &=\frac{1}{2^n} +\frac12\left(1-\frac{1}{2^{n-1}}\right)\\ &=\frac12. \end{aligned} Hence the probability of landing on 1010 is 12.\dfrac12. Thus, the correct answer is E.
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