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2010 AMC 10A Problem 23

Problem 23 of 25HarderAlgebraCounting & Probability

Each of 20102010 boxes in a line contains a single red marble, and for 1k2010,1 \le k \le 2010, the box in the kkth position also contains kk white marbles. Isabella begins at the first box and successively draws a single marble at random from each box, in order. She stops when she first draws a red marble. Let P(n)P(n) be the probability that Isabella stops after drawing exactly nn marbles. What is the smallest value of nn for which P(n)<12010?P(n) \lt \dfrac{1}{2010}?

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Solution

Since there are k+1k + 1 marbles in the kk th box, there is a kk+1\dfrac{k}{k + 1} chance Isabella draws a white marble from it. The probability of drawing a red marble is then 1k+1.\dfrac{1}{k + 1}. To stop after drawing the nn th marble, the first n1n - 1 marbles must have been white. This happens with a probability of 1223n1n1n+1. \dfrac{1}{2} \cdot \dfrac{2}{3} \cdot \ldots \cdot \dfrac{n - 1}{n} \cdot \dfrac{1}{n + 1}. Note that all the numerators cancel with the adjacent denominator, which means that this expression reduces to 1n(n+1).\dfrac{1}{n(n + 1)}. We have to find the smallest nn such that 1n(n+1)<12010 \dfrac{1}{n(n + 1)} \lt \dfrac{1}{2010} n(n+1)>2010. n(n + 1) \gt 2010. Guessing and checking gives us that the smallest nn that works is 45.45. Thus, A is the correct answer.

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Concepts: basic probability · telescoping · inequality

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