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2022 AMC 10B Problem 23

Problem 23 of 25HarderCounting & Probability

Ant Amelia starts on the number line at 00 and crawls in the following manner. For n=1,n=1, 2,2, 3;3; Amelia chooses a time duration tnt_n and an increment xnx_n independently and uniformly at random from the interval (0,1).(0,1). During the nnth step of the process, Amelia moves xnx_n units in the positive direction, using up tnt_n minutes. If the total elapsed time has exceeded 11 minute during the nnth step, she stops at the end of that step; otherwise, she continues with the next step, taking at most 33 steps in all. What is the probability that Amelia’s position when she stops will be greater than 1?1?

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Solution

The stopping time depends only on the time variables, while the final position depends only on the distance variables, so the corresponding probabilities multiply. For two independent numbers in (0,1),(0,1), the probability that their sum is less than 11 is the area of a right triangle, namely 12.\frac12. For three independent numbers in (0,1),(0,1), the probability that their sum is less than 11 is the volume of a tetrahedron with side intercepts 1,1, namely 16.\frac16. If t1+t2>1,t_1+t_2>1, Amelia stops after two steps. This has probability 12,\frac12, and independently x1+x2>1x_1+x_2>1 has probability 12,\frac12, contributing 14.\frac14. If t1+t2<1,t_1+t_2<1, Amelia takes the third step. This has probability 12,\frac12, and independently x1+x2+x3>1x_1+x_2+x_3>1 has probability 116=56,1-\frac16=\frac56, contributing 512.\frac5{12}. The total probability is 14+512=23.\frac14+\frac5{12}=\frac23. Thus, the answer is C .

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Concepts: geometric probability · independent events · casework

Problem text and solution from the LIVE past-contest archive. See also the AoPS wiki page for community solutions.