2020 AMC 12B Problem 16

To end with three of each color, exactly two of the four added balls must be red. Consider any sequence of draws. When the urn holds $k$ balls, drawing a particular color with count $c$ has probability $\tfrac{c}{k}.$ Any ordering with two red and two blue additions gives the same product $\tfrac{1\cdot 2\cdot 1\cdot 2}{2\cdot 3\cdot 4\cdot 5},$ and there are $\binom42 = 6$ such orderings, for probability $\tfrac{6\cdot 4}{120} = \tfrac15.$ (Equivalently, the number of red balls after four steps is uniform on $\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5\},$ so $3$ red occurs with probability $\tfrac15.$) Thus, the correct answer is B.