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2020 AMC 10A Problem 25

Problem 25 of 25HarderAlgebraCounting & Probability

Jason rolls three fair standard six-sided dice. Then he looks at the rolls and chooses a subset of the dice (possibly empty, possibly all three dice) to reroll. After rerolling, he wins if and only if the sum of the numbers face up on the three dice is exactly 7.7. Jason always plays to optimize his chances of winning. What is the probability that he chooses to reroll exactly two of the dice?

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Solution

For any initial roll, Jason compares the best probabilities from rerolling 0,1,2,0,1,2, or 33 dice. Rerolling all three dice has probability 15216=572\frac{15}{216}=\frac{5}{72}. Rerolling one die has probability 16\frac{1}{6} whenever some pair of kept dice has sum at most 66. If he rerolls exactly two dice, he keeps one die. Keeping a die showing 1,2,3,4,5,61,2,3,4,5,6 gives probabilities 5,4,3,2,1,05,4,3,2,1,0 out of 3636, respectively. This can be optimal only when the two smallest dice sum at least 77 and the smallest die is 1,2,1,2, or 33. The sorted rolls satisfying this are (1,6,6)(1,6,6), (2,5,5),(2,5,6),(2,6,6)(2,5,5),(2,5,6),(2,6,6), and (3,4,4),(3,4,4), (3,4,5),(3,4,5), (3,4,6),(3,4,6), (3,5,5),(3,5,5), (3,5,6),(3,5,6), (3,6,6)(3,6,6). Counting permutations gives 3+12+27=423+12+27=42 rolls out of 216216, so the probability is 42216=736\frac{42}{216}=\frac{7}{36}. Thus, A is the correct answer.

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Concepts: dice (probability) · optimization · casework

Problem text and solution from the LIVE past-contest archive. See also the AoPS wiki page for community solutions.