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2021 Fall AMC 10A Problem 21

Problem 21 of 25HarderCombinatoricsProbability & Statistics

Each of 2020 balls is tossed independently and at random into one of the 55 bins. Let pp be the probability that some bin ends up with 33 balls, another with 55 balls, and the other three with 44 balls each. Let qq be the probability that every bin ends up with 44 balls. What is pq?\dfrac{p}{q}?

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Solution

All 5205^{20} assignments of the distinguishable balls to the labeled bins are equally likely. For q,q, the number of assignments is 20!(4!)5.\frac{20!}{(4!)^5}. For p,p, choose the bin with 33 balls and the bin with 55 balls in 5⋅45\cdot4 ways. The number of assignments is then 5⋅4⋅20!3!5!(4!)3.5\cdot4\cdot\frac{20!}{3!5!(4!)^3}. The common probability denominator cancels, so pq=20⋅(4!)23!5!=20⋅45=16.\frac pq=20\cdot\frac{(4!)^2}{3!5!}=20\cdot\frac45=16. Thus, E is the correct answer.
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