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2021 Fall AMC 10B Problem 16

Problem 16 of 25IntermediateCounting & Probability

Five balls are arranged around a circle. Chris chooses two adjacent balls at random and interchanges them. Then Silva does the same, with her choice of adjacent balls to interchange being independent of Chris’s. What is the expected number of balls that occupy their original positions after these two successive transpositions?

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Solution

After Chris chooses an adjacent pair, Silva has 55 equally likely adjacent pairs to choose. If Silva chooses the same pair, all 55 balls return to their original positions. This has probability 15.\frac15. If Silva chooses a pair sharing exactly one ball with Chris’s pair, then 22 balls are in their original positions. There are 22 such pairs, so this has probability 25.\frac25. If Silva chooses a disjoint adjacent pair, then 11 ball is in its original position. This also has probability 25.\frac25. The expected number is 515+225+125=115=2.2. \begin{aligned} 5\cdot\frac15+2\cdot\frac25+1\cdot\frac25&=\frac{11}{5}\\ &=2.2. \end{aligned} Thus, the answer is D .

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Concepts: expected value · casework

Problem text and solution from the LIVE past-contest archive. See also the AoPS wiki page for community solutions.